Negative Progressions

The forum name says it all. You're new to the game of craps and don't have a clue where to begin. Pass Line. Don't Pass. Come. Don't Come. Hardways. Big Six. Big Eight. The Horn. Good Grief! Sounds like back when you were trying to make a decision about what to do in the back seat on that first car date. Well never fear! There are a few folks around here who have spent enough time at the tables to be able to answer just about any question you may have. So step right up and get a clue!

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irish
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Negative Progressions

Post by irish » Wed May 24, 2017 1:44 pm

See this a lot on other sites.

The Martingale is a negative progression. Are all negative progressions, Martingales?
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House of Orange
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Re: Negative Progressions

Post by House of Orange » Thu May 25, 2017 4:23 pm

Can't believe the ignorant masses, of so called AP's, on WoV, that think that way. Unfortunately, my favorite negative progression, The D'Alembert, invented for European Roulette, is very hard to adapt to craps and almost impossible for Blackjack. Boring too, for the action junkies.

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Re: Negative Progressions

Post by heavy » Thu May 25, 2017 4:34 pm

Personally, I like the Fibonacci. Some people call is a "slow martingale." So what? Just because you're playing a "up as you lose" strategy does not mean you're playing a martingale. It does sort of of play into due number theory and the old "he can't possibly make another pass" deal when you're playing the Don'ts. Rarely CAN they make another pass, which is why I limit my progressive Lay betting mostly to Fire Bet games where I can Lay against the fourth, fifth, and sixth passes. But that's a horse of a different color.

How about this. If you are running your negative progression on the Free Odds bet ONLY are you really running a negative progression? Hmmm. That's almost worth its own topic.
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mainframe
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Re: Negative Progressions

Post by mainframe » Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:49 pm

heavy wrote:How about this. If you are running your negative progression on the Free Odds bet ONLY are you really running a negative progression? Hmmm. That's almost worth its own topic.
What you are referring to here is a situation where you are increasing your bet size on the Free Odds only in the event of one or more losing hands. So, the simplest example would be this:

1. You start a hand with a $10 Passline bet. It loses.
2. So you do another $10 passline bet and add $10 free odds. The shooter sevens out.
3. So you do another $10 passline bet and add $20 free odds. The shooter sevens out
4. So you do another $10 passline bet and add $30 free odds (three times the original lost passline wager).

The example above is definitely a negative progression, but it gets really cloudy for several reasons:
a.) The passline wager can be resolved without a point being established (craps, seven or 11 on comeout), but free odds cannot be established with a point number being rolled
b.) The payout on the free odds is not a flat 1:1 payout like the passline bet
c.) There are table limits on free odds bets that are easily reached (the most common is 3x4x5x odds)

A much better place to do a proportional negative progression would be on simply place or no place bet. So place the six, if it looses, double the wager, then triple the wager, etc.

I think it can be argued that increasing free odds can be leveraged as a "negative progression" betting scheme, or that its seperate and independant from any other bet going on.

I think that properly proportioned negative progression betting schemes become complex at a craps table when you place a combination of bets that have different odds, payouts, and EVs.

Classic Martingale or any other simple negative progression is simplest with flat bets that payout 1:1.





I think that it can be argued that you are both runni

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Re: Negative Progressions

Post by irish » Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:18 am

Marty's are simpler, but get to table max quicker. In a typical $5/$5000 table:
$5/$10/$20/$40/$80/$160/$320/$640/$1280/$2560/$5000

11 losses to table max. When you hear system scammers claim "90%" win rate, they're just running negative progressions or marty's. The day that that you get 11 losses, it's a huge loss. Even if you "win" at step 10, would you risk $2560 for a profit of $5?

Heavy mentioned "slow" negative progressions like fibo's. They add to the number of steps to table max. You just increased your "win" rate. Throw in some legitimate volatility management like don't let the same player beat you more than X times, you've slowed the progression further. Run your negative progression on wagers that are slow to resolve, and you're maxing out your table time.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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