Regarding the choppy table-short leash method

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Seattlerick
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Regarding the choppy table-short leash method

Post by Seattlerick » Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:39 pm

Hi guys, thought I would chime in with some personal expierence about his method. A bit of background first. I have been on a great run for a while, won 15 sessions in a row over a two month time frame. Won enough to increase my betting to the next level ( 22 inside to 44 inside ), as my bank roll increased substantially. The last of that run was on my last road trip. Came home and have played six sessions, or tie and E small Winn and four straight loss. This is the first time in at least five years , that I gave oat for more than two sessions in a row. Anyway the last four tables have been basically unplayable.dark side one loss per shooter, laying numbers, playing one hit and down on the right side, waiting for a point to be made, playing both sides at the same time ( doing a dont come,followed by placing the other inside numbers that are not the dont or all of them if he point is four or ten ), taking two hits and comming down,except for the dont number, etc. nothing has worked.not just for me unfortunately also, as a have seen about four or five players walk away ahead during these sessions. I have played at five different casinos during this streak of run bad. Anyway, I figured that these conditions should fit the definition of choppy, cold or cool tables ,so the short leash method Should work. So on last Sunday ,after being plus or minus $15, for two hours,I decided to try it. The progression is $5,$15,$35,$75,$155 after the shooter makes his/her first point. So I pick a place to start when the four worst rollers on the table are about to begin. First roller goes point seven out, the second roller rolls a come out seven, then goes point seven out., the third roller does the exact same thing. The fourth roller rolls a seven,then bullfrogs a point of nine,rolls a seven, then bullfrogs a point of four, rolls an eleven come out roll, then bullfrogs a second point of ten. Ok I just lost $130 and am suppose to bet $155 on the next point. I decide not to bet any more on this shooter. He then rolls back to back sevens, sets another four and bullfrogs that point, then sets a six and sevens out. He rolls 14 rolls total, ( not including the first come out seven ) ,seven of which are don't side losers. This is only supposed to happen once every 200 rollers, or so the math says. I stay for four more rollers, none of which make more than one point and none make more than six rolls. I lick my wounds and go home. On Wednesday I go to another casino , find the table to be much like the casino on Sunday was, I play for two hours, all on the dark side. Lose two lay gets ( both on ten ) and another $20 to come out sevens and leave with a loss of $60. Longest roll of either of the last two sessions was 15. I did not try the short leash method at this session.on Thursday ,at a different casino the same scenario. Lots of four and tens for points, average roll between five and six rolls. Played again for two hours with up and down $15. Tried short leash method again after about 1 3/4 hours. Won the first roller on a point seven out after a bullfroged First point of ten.Won the second roller on the same scenario, only a first point of four ,which was Bullfroged. Next roller bullfroged a point of four, then threw back to back elevens, then bullfroged a point of ten, I bet $75 and he sets a four,rolls 6,5,4. Sheesh, I stop betting, he then sets a six ,then rolls ,3,3,2,11,6,3,7,11,4,7. Twenty one rolls, THREE paying inside numbers. This was the longest roll expierenced in three sessions. Ya, it was awesome. Ok ,on to casino number four on day four. Basically a re run of the last three sessions. Lots of short rolls, quite a few bullfroged points and lots of sevens. The highlight of this day was a lady roller. She rolled three times. She got rolls of 7,then 8 ,then 9 rolls, so 24 rolls total, three points made ( one each turn ),along with TWELVE sevens, nine of which were come out rolls. Needless to say ,did not bet on her,except twice on lay bets of four, both if which got hit when she set four for her point. Tried the short leash again on this session. After winning two $15 bets and two $5 bets, the fifth roller did this : 3,2,4 ,4, ( I start betting ),3,11,10,10, 7,6,6,10,11,3,10,9,7. I stop betting after the come out seven,after losing $55. This was another total wipeout of the short leash method. According to the math, this should not have happened,as it was in three different casinos, it was just absolute bad luck. My take on this bad run of luck is this.even on very bad tables, this system is dangerous. You should have at least $1000 buy in to run it, as $285 is a full wipeout. I think that three should be your maximum loss for any one shooter, that is a loss of $55 ( on a five dollar table ). No matter how bad the table is, at some point, a roller will have a bizarre roll and wipe you out. I can see that some of the time a " good roll " will be the culprit, but a lot of the time a " way out of probobility " roll will be the culprit. And after a lengthy amount of very short rolls, a bigger roll will eventually show itself, and if you are playing the short leash method, you will get blown out. Choppy tables are hard to play, period. This method I am sure will work some of the time. But I am not sure you will win enough $5 and $15 bets to make up for the wipe outs. On the other hand,maybe I am just about the unluckiest player ever......naw......your friend ....Seattle Rick

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stratocasterman
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Re: Regarding the choppy table-short leash method

Post by stratocasterman » Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:51 am

Seattle Rick...nice report, bad outcome.

I've been back to the table once lately, since I took a break. Fortunately, CTSL smiled on me that day for a $64 Win but, I won on a $60 level bet thank God. Could have easily went the other way!
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"

SHOOTITALL
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Re: Regarding the choppy table-short leash method

Post by SHOOTITALL » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:29 pm

Rick: If I read correctly, I don't think you are playing the CTSL correctly. The entry point is after the shooter has made a point.
A CO win is not a point, A CO craps is not a point. So the shooter has to set and make a point before you start on this. Now, because there is a lot of TUMA time waiting on a randy to make a f'ing point, I use the OH-CM waiting on that point. Not a bad way to pass the time. But this is key, when you lose your DP to the point with the OH-CM, it's time to jump in on the CTSL. You might want to run it on WinCraps and get a feel for it or not. sia (If you want to leave the 6/8 up, entirely up to you as that is a separate bet.)
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.

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stratocasterman
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Re: Regarding the choppy table-short leash method

Post by stratocasterman » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:47 pm

SHOOTITALL wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:29 pm
Now, because there is a lot of TUMA time waiting on a randy to make a f'ing point, I use the OH-CM waiting on that point. Not a bad way to pass the time. But this is key, when you lose your DP to the point with the OH-CM, it's time to jump in on the CTSL.
SIA...excellent! Been right in front of my face the whole time and just wasn't looking. ;)

Wincraps here I come...
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"

SHOOTITALL
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Re: Regarding the choppy table-short leash method

Post by SHOOTITALL » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:07 am

Strat: After you get comfortable with this improved way of playing, reread my two part blog on playing the OH-CM. Now it will probably make sense to you. https://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... 920#p79920
Let me add here, there is one tricky part in the transition. Say you get your DP, 6/8 loaded and get a hit. Next roll is a seven out.
This is where your judgement comes in as RR made a point but you won and did not lose on him (+$1.00) so here, you can reload the DP ONE time or shift over to the CTSL scenario, your gut feeling or intuition here as there is no hard and fast what to do. Myself, I reload the DP as I feel more comfortable playing small amounts. Now, if the DP loses on the CO, I may pull everything and wait for a new shooter or start the CTSL. I wish I could be more specific but craps is so much intuition.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.

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