Come out Big Red

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Parson
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Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:09 pm

Actually this could be game within a game thread .... so move if need be

I’m a slow learner, I admit it. But today at the office i started putting a pen to come out rolls, 7s and Horns.

I am war gaming, and studying BT analysis to find the right set. But .....
using a couple of BT recommended tosses as well as the inline 6 set ... here is what I am looking at currently.

On the initial come out Lay 180 across thats $30 per box number. Risk $30 to win $110 if my math is correct.
$6 Horn (this is what you want if you can repeat Horns), Hop the 5-2 and 6-1 each for $2. Hop hard 4&10 for $1

Press the horns on a win one $6 unit?

So 7 wins 110+25+30(if hop hits) which is a nice start with no point yet. Looking for a set that will yield on a loss a 6 or 8 as the point.

It looked pretty good while i was war gaming tonight. I need your advice thoughts as i think i want to incorporate this into my strategy .... yes i could do a world bet if i could hit the horns enough with ace deuce kicker. But I’m trying to be realistic with my toss... worst case lose $30 on the lay and the hops of $8 and the $6 horn ... and any vig on the lay.
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skasower
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by skasower » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:31 pm

Mr. Parson,
I like your thinking here. It is aggressive. It assumes (as you rightly have done) some DI capability. Personally, I would really consider the World Bet since you are also hopping 7s. I am a sucker for the World (Whirl?) Bet, and betting on it gives me just enough adrenaline to focus my toss.

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Parson
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:47 pm

Well, my thought on my normal $25 or $30 pass is sometimes $5 crap check. Hopefully hit a horn to jump start an ATS.. maybe multiple ones.

7 and 11 win the pass, yo wins the horn too, seven wins me the lays .... hit a seven press the hops and reload another toss.
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rhythm roller
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by rhythm roller » Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:06 pm

Personally, I like the idea of the lay bets on the Come Out but doesn't shooting for 7's defeat the feature bet money since you have to reload them after a 7 (other than with a fire bet)? Would you not bet the feature if you were to use this strategy? Just curious about your thoughts or maybe I missed something in reading your post above. Thanks!
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Big O
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Big O » Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:50 pm

Hopefully hit a horn to jump start an ATS.. maybe multiple ones.
am i missing something but doesnt the come out seven attempts conflict with your ATS attempts? Especially with the amounts you usually play on it.
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Parson
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:22 am

Big O wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:50 pm
Hopefully hit a horn to jump start an ATS.. maybe multiple ones.
am i missing something but doesnt the come out seven attempts conflict with your ATS attempts? Especially with the amounts you usually play on it.
In a way yes. My normal bet is 10/10/10 with 30 on the pass. My goal is 25/25/25 to hit, only caught one side or the other.

My thought is to do this on the original or initial come out, and likely not on subsequent come outs. The pass covers the bet on the carnival bet on initial come outs.

When i get better at facial outcomes, to me it would be a way to have table money right away for place bets. Right now i am a “Tweener”, more single pitch than double pitch.
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heavy
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by heavy » Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:41 pm

I'd consider laying $194 across. That gives you correct bets across. $41 no four and ten, $31 no five and nine, and $25 no six and eight. A seven on the Come Out wins the same $120. Even though you're risking more you're risking less on the six and eight, which are more likely to lose.

Instead of a $6 horn, which I assume is a $4 horn with an extra buck each on the 3 and 11, I'd probably bet a $5 World with an extra buck on the 3. You're going to win on the Pass Line on the 11 anyway, so IMHO you don't really need to pay the extra vig to have it on the horn as well. I'd rather have that extra buck on the World bet to hedge the horn numbers. Just my personal choice.

Sevens hopping is fine but you don't want to blow so much money on prop bets that it eats up any win you might have on the Come Out Lay action if you knock yourself off a number. Remember, if you knock yourself off a nine, for example, you'll need to repeat that nine to win back the money you lost on it on the Come Out roll. Consider that when you size your Pass Line Bet. Likewise, you want to size your Pass Line bet so that if you win the Horn or World bet that the loss of the Pass Line bet doesn't eat up all of those winnings.

Back when I played the World come out came all of the time I set the crossed sixes or straight sixes on the Come Out and bet a $5 World plus $1 each on the high low with a $10 Pass Line. A 2 or 12 in a non-Caesars property paid $55. I'd press every hit by $7 - a $10 World plus $2 each on the high low, etc. Pays $110 - $165 - etc -for as long as I could toss 2's or 12's. An occasional 3 or 11 would pay $11 on the first hit, $22 on the second, $33 on the third, etc. My personal record is thirteen hits. My personal best on consecutive 2's or 12's is six. But in each case - that's happened ONCE in over 50 years of play. So don't get used to the idea.

Back around 2005 me, Irish, and Maddog undertook a little experiment where we played a horn/high-low martingale strategy using the crossed sixes and straight sixes and were fairly successful with it. However, we ultimately set it aside in favor of more consistent wins on numbers that were simply easier to toss - like sixes and eights. A Horn number strategy is really little different than - say - a hop the hardways strategy. You can stand there and throw money at "all the hardways on the hop" all day long but if the hardways aren't showing you're going to soon go broke.

I'd definitely be interested in seeing how this plays out in BoneTracker and your practice sessions, and perhaps a "tiptoe through the tulips" attempt in live play under ideal casino conditions.
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Parson
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:41 pm

My plan in a few days is to simulate 20 come out rolls every day, in a few days i will have some BT data to start exploring.

Now you have me rethinking some of the strategy ... i hate wasted tosses, but dont like working on initial come out. So was thinking more about shooting for sevens.

Tonight i was about 50% winner in some form, which included hard 4 and hard 10 ... didnt play the money through, but just evaluated the toss as a bet winner or loser.
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DarthNater
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by DarthNater » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:34 pm

Parson,
Lots of good trade offs for you to think about. I think if you dig a bit deeper into your BT you will find two of the horns outweighs the other two. Not all horns are created equal, nor pay equal. Unless you are double pitching a lot (and I recall that’s not your trend) either the three or the Yo is likely more dominant, and then since there’s only one way to May a two or twelve, you can use face matching to dial in one or the other. In my pursuits that has been my tactic find either a 12/11 or 2/11 set, as those pass line wins can mount and a Yo set seems to become a ace-deuce set.

Take your last two books and analyze in BT which numbers the first book produces best. Then get the second book to do a quick validation on that plan. Then start tossing that set. Track it and still be prepared to run transposes on those results, DN8R

Second nickel, study those secondary results, and learn what your most frequent point number might be.... lots of possibilities to that if you really want to bog down your game with an across lay that sounds good, but is very challenging for many dealers. I’d rather bang a $25 ATS side than complicate my approach with an across lay.

Third nickel, if you have an 11/12 GWAG power set I’d go 20/25/30 on the ATS as ATS sides are not created equal

4th nickel... I like to full parlay the first horn/world/ace-deuce hit; I spreadsheeted Horn bets a few years ago as that second horn becomes a big payout
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by 22Inside » Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:09 am

DarthNater wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:34 pm
Parson,
Lots of good trade offs for you to think about. I think if you dig a bit deeper into your BT you will find two of the horns outweighs the other two. Not all horns are created equal, nor pay equal. Unless you are double pitching a lot (and I recall that’s not your trend) either the three or the Yo is likely more dominant, and then since there’s only one way to May a two or twelve, you can use face matching to dial in one or the other. In my pursuits that has been my tactic find either a 12/11 or 2/11 set, as those pass line wins can mount and a Yo set seems to become a ace-deuce set.

Take your last two books and analyze in BT which numbers the first book produces best. Then get the second book to do a quick validation on that plan. Then start tossing that set. Track it and still be prepared to run transposes on those results, DN8R

Second nickel, study those secondary results, and learn what your most frequent point number might be.... lots of possibilities to that if you really want to bog down your game with an across lay that sounds good, but is very challenging for many dealers. I’d rather bang a $25 ATS side than complicate my approach with an across lay.

Third nickel, if you have an 11/12 GWAG power set I’d go 20/25/30 on the ATS as ATS sides are not created equal

4th nickel... I like to full parlay the first horn/world/ace-deuce hit; I spreadsheeted Horn bets a few years ago as that second horn becomes a big payout
Nate, in that vein I can understand the quest for an 11/12 dominant set, but why 2/11? Why not 2/3? If a Yo set can become an ace-deuce set, why can't an ace-deuce set become a yo set?

I like the thought of an unbalanced ATS bet if you go the route of high/low horn dominant sets.

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DarthNater
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by DarthNater » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:00 am

22Inside wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:09 am
Nate, in that vein I can understand the quest for an 11/12 dominant set, but why 2/11? Why not 2/3? If a Yo set can become an ace-deuce set, why can't an ace-deuce set become a yo set?

I like the thought of an unbalanced ATS bet if you go the route of high/low horn dominant sets.
22Inside,
I leaned toward 11/12 as it also gave me more specific box numbers than other horn combos. I haven’t been able to validate a 2/3 rich set of yet; plus I liked losing less on the PL, especially if I’m using that bet as protection for my ATS spread. For me the 2 has been the ATS nemesis more than the 12; as the 12 is more frequent in the four/five sets in the Coaster Group that I use in my attacks

DN8R
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Parson
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:23 am

Last night i worked a set with low SRR, about 4.5. I did 20 rolls as a come out... didnt hit enough 7s ...but was a small net winner from the lay and the hops .... war gaming continue. I know one 20 toss does not make anything predictable. The experiment will continue. That set hit a bunch of fives and some hardways (which i had hopped for $1). I only went with a $5 horn hi ace deuce .... it hit more midnights last night which bonetracker favored.
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House of Orange
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by House of Orange » Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:59 am

There is a tool that can help us out. Would be a great addition to Heavy's classes. Programming Win Craps to handle any situation, such as outlined above. Wonder if anyone can do this, teach us to take our BT results and formulate results moving forward. Instead of 20 rolls, how about 20,000 rolls, in a short period of time.

Parson
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:04 pm

House of Orange wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:59 am
There is a tool that can help us out. Would be a great addition to Heavy's classes. Programming Win Craps to handle any situation, such as outlined above. Wonder if anyone can do this, teach us to take our BT results and formulate results moving forward. Instead of 20 rolls, how about 20,000 rolls, in a short period of time.
Now that would be something, what will i roll in advance!

I chose 20 rolls simply, how many comeouts would i have in a weekend trip... i chose 20. I am not sure yet whether tracking those 20 in BT is worth it. Thots?
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House of Orange
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by House of Orange » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:32 pm

No you are wondering what will happen based on past die face results and experimenting with a different set. 20,000 roll results with that set would answer your question.

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coaster
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by coaster » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:31 pm

Maybe I am just not familiar enough with Win Craps to actually discuss this. I think we are trying to use data from two programs that measure different things and somehow combine them. WinCraps as I understand it is a way to test betting strategies. If I am correct you can either use a random number generator within the program or enter your own toss data into WinCraps.

It is my perception that in WinCraps those 20,000 rolls would be randomly generated by the program unless you entered your own actual tosses. I just don’t understand how a personal data file of 20 could be changed into 20,000 and still reflect your influence.

I couldn’t even make a guess as to how long it might take to enter 20,000 rolls of your own. For personal data to be meaningful it would have to be recent. To me recent is the past month or so. I doubt if many or any of us have put in 20,000 rolls during the “recent”.

Bone Tracker does do quite a few things. First it can give you an idea of the amount of influence you are applying to dice tosses. Also through the transpose tab it can suggest different sets that according to your influence can be used to your advantage for different objectives.

If you are searching for special sets for come out. You might want to try this. Since most of us try to make the same shot regardless if it’s on the come out or mid hand. We make changes to our set not our toss. Therefore, it’s not necessary to try to make a “special” come out data file. As long as you make the same shot just use Bone Tracker to transpose all your shots to any set you might want to use for a come out. Once transposed you can pretty easily see if the set is doing what you want it to do.

Coaster

House of Orange
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by House of Orange » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:06 pm

As simple as I can. You input die faces into BoneTracker using the input set you have used. The program rearranges results into what would have happened with set y, z, etc. The transpose pages. What would happen if we used set z and applied the rules of our system? What winCraps could do, with the system properly coded, and the probabilities of the results of set z imputed into this wincraps file, is show you what would happen with 20,000 rolls. And again. And again.

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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Golfer » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:11 am

Never used Wincraps or Bonetracker, just not that into it. However, I think back in the day, I hopped the red more than most. Most tossed in a row was 5. That was fun. Usually use straight 6's with Heavy's old method of a world and hi-low. Most 2 0r 12's in a row was 3, but have seem more from others. On the comeout or when shooting from the don't the reds turning scatch my itch. However, a million years ago someone said, Hop bets are the crack cocaine of craps". Still true.

Golfer

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DarthNater
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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by DarthNater » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:54 am

For the World-Hi-Lo, I’d rather throw 5 12s/2s in a row......then color quickly soon after.....

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Re: Come out Big Red

Post by Parson » Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:44 am

Last week while on a short run to tunica, i was playing the donts, i was in the right turn .... guy sL was shooting after about 5 attempts, he and everyone else passed the dice. I was like what tha?.... after i sevened i got to shoot again.
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