The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

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The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

Post by heavy » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:20 pm

While I'm continually surprised at how few DI's are willing to even consider playing the Don'ts, it seems to me somewhat illigocial that most DI's give no thought to Lay Betting as hedges when shooting from the right side. Allow me to look back on the recent PUG trials to support my thesis. Looking at PUG #11's final results, he had an SRR of 7.83 using the 54 54 hardway set. But he had a disadvantage of 1.53% on the 10. While this is not a statistically huge disadvantage, it's enough for me to consider that it might be worth this player making at least some sort of Lay bet on the 10 to hedge his Place bets on more profitable numbers.

PUG user 6 had a whopping 10.75 SRR but was at a disadvantage on the point of 5. Again, exploitable.

PUG user 2 had an SRR of 8.0 and a significant disadvantage on the 4.

PUG User 9's SRR was just 5.38, but we could switch his set and bring it up to 6.97. Even so, he came up significantly short on 8's, of all things.

My point is - if you have a number you don't roll - why waster your time making a bet on it you're unlikely to win. Wouldn't it make more since for someone who never rolls the 5 to play $30 each on the Six and Eight and to Lay the 5 for $62 as a partial hedge?

Can anybody think outside the box or is everyone locked into playing the same old strategy you've been playing for the last umpteen years?
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memo
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Re: The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

Post by memo » Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:29 pm

heavy wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:20 pm
While I'm continually surprised at how few DI's are willing to even consider playing the Don'ts, it seems to me somewhat illigocial that most DI's give no thought to Lay Betting as hedges when shooting from the right side. Allow me to look back on the recent PUG trials to support my thesis.

PUG user 6 had a whopping 10.75 SRR but was at a disadvantage on the point of 5. Again, exploitable.

My point is - if you have a number you don't roll - why waster your time making a bet on it you're unlikely to win. Wouldn't it make more since for someone who never rolls the 5 to play $30 each on the Six and Eight and to Lay the 5 for $62 as a partial hedge?

Can anybody think outside the box or is everyone locked into playing the same old strategy you've been playing for the last umpteen years?
Great points Heavy,
All of this stuff in new and interesting...

I believe war gaming is definitely in order..
How much and of what character does the information manifest in the casino....and which casinos..and tables?
Off the bat, with Pug6.. I am thinking that the SRR may vary somewhat, but stay relatively high (my guess based on who I think it is)
However, who is to say that while the individual edge(s) may 'trend' the same, the exact numbers may vary. I would be looking at what the trend is at the moment and place (table). Similar to.. 'See a horn bet a horn'.

With an SRR and Chi score like that, one can expect some long hands (hopefully)..
In long hands, 5's will occur. I certainly would try a come out No5. Not so sure I would do it continuously without a trend showing beforehand...Take a medium hand of 20 tosses. One would be better off betting on the 5 or not betting on the 5 at all, than laying it. Conversely, If Pug6 is having a bad day or fighting a table...It may then, be a time to lay that 5.
Similar discussion can be made about all of your examples.

I'm not locked in...I think there is a lot to explore here. And as time goes on we will validate it to a greater or lesser degree. Something I am looking forward to.

Memo

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Re: The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

Post by House of Orange » Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:08 am

Been looking at some casino BT files. If I were to marry the don’ts, I would have between a 54-60% win rate. No way that happens on the pass line. What will it take to buy the engagement ring?

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Re: The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

Post by thnick » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:31 am

That's pretty good. As long as the wins are bigger than the losses..your Ferrari awaits. The problem, as in trading, is the win/loss ratio. Two bets on the table means you are betting more to win less. So..hey..with another shooter besides yourself just put $35 on the five or nine and wait. And when you shoot..money on the DP, no odds, no other bets?

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Re: The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

Post by House of Orange » Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:44 am

Yes, the Ferrari depends on the negative progression, D'Alembert, single lay odds. No other bets, the Spirit of Dylan Freak comes over you, but then again he doesn't shoot. Work in progress. Be at the jewelry store in Biloxi shortly.

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