What size increase in bankroll is needed to add a lay bet on each comeout roll?

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Billionaireben
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Re: What size increase in bankroll is needed to add a lay bet on each comeout roll?

Post by Billionaireben » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:55 pm

DarthNater, good post. It's tough to quantify the advantage for the purpose of Kelly criterion. I based the initial bankroll on an edge greater than 1%, each time I raise the initial bet; I'll add 10% more units to the bankroll. Example: To increase my bet to $132, I have to have 110 units for $14520. I might have 1000 units at $660 inside in the future, with a large bet; I'd want to increase confidence. The side benefit of those large wagers is that I could cut it in half if I lose and do it a few times to keep losses to 2 units in a bad session.

With complete randomness, one should get an inside number (18 ways) 75% of the rolls and a 7out (6 ways) 25% of the rolls. With dice control, I think it's about 80% of the rolls. Going from 1 in 4 losing to 1 in 5 is pretty good, I don't know what the advantage would be if all rolls after were random. After that, I may collect the first 3, but press until I've made 15 rolls and then take down to a minimal bet.

Originally, I did it the way you mentioned; large bet (not even close to this bankroll let alone that one) and I didn't do well, too small a sample to be sure. I like the 5+9 lay in theory (both avoidable if on axis, loses less than it would have won if it falls off axis, can win multiple times but can only lose once since I'd call it back after the come out roll.)

Definitely right on testing it on a private table, I'll have to build one; I usually use my couch. All my personal statistics were from actual casino play though.

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Re: What size increase in bankroll is needed to add a lay bet on each comeout roll?

Post by heavy » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:39 pm

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