The Original Crapsfest / Axis Power Craps Archive Post 10

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The Original Crapsfest / Axis Power Craps Archive Post 10

Post by heavy » Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:04 pm

Okay, this will be the last post in this series today (I think). I'll try to do them in ten-post chunks. Each archival post will contain around 20 posts from the old boards. I've touched on the issues with formatting and attribution in posts 1 thru 6, so if you have questions regarding that please see those threads. This is post #10:

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151 55785f65d6 [color=green:55785f65d6][b:55785f65d6]Not Bad, Not Bad at All[/b:55785f65d6][/color:55785f65d6][/size:55785f65d6] [color=blue:55785f65d6][b:55785f65d6]Feb 17, 2010[/b:55785f65d6][/color:55785f65d6] I’m beginning to like this evening/night thing, although it was Wednesday today and I was afraid that it might be too crowded. And it was, kind of. When I got to the tables, I had a choice between an almost empty $10 table and a $5 table with 8 players around it. I chose Table #2 which was at $5 table. My plan was to bet as little as possible on the randies and bet $10 on the Don’t for the come-out for myself. I bought in for $200 and got my place at SL1. The dice had just passed me by. So the guy next to me was shooting. After I got my chips I went down to use the restroom and get a cup of decaf and a glass of ice water to rinse that coffee after-taste away after I drank it. I took my time getting back to the table. The dice had gone down to the other end when I returned. I put out a bet on this shooter and lost my $6. I replaced it with a $7 Don’t bet and I won that giving me a $1 profit. I waited a couple of more shooters and bet on 2 more randies again. The exact same thing happened and I made another $1 on both of them. It didn’t take very long for the dice to go around the table. At 5:40 pm, I put my $10 on the Don’t pass. I set the dice to the straight 6’s with the 7’s all around and established the 10 as the point. I gave the dealer some chips to place and said, “Give me $44 inside.” I was still using the straight 6’s set with the 7’s all around and I hit one of my inside bets, I tossed the dealer $8 and told him to make look like $66 inside. Still using the 7’s set, I rolled a 9 and told the dealer, “Take me Down on everything.” At this point I still had $10 on the Don’t and the point was 10. This is where I messed up. I had notes with me about all the replies you guys gave to me the other day and I was trying to remember everything. I had too much going on in my mind and I forgot to switch my dice set. I used the same set as I used to establish the 10 in the first place. Well on the next roll, I make my point. Now I put my $10 Don’t bet back up and add another $1 to it, making it look like $11. I set the all 7’s set and rolled the 3 on the come-out. I reduced my Don’t pass bet back down to $10 and roll another 3. This was fun. I finally established the 8 as the point and made the same mistake of setting the dice to the all 7’s using the parallel set. I should have used another set. It worked out though and I got lucky. 6-1, 7-out was the call on the next roll. By this time the table had 12 guys around and it didn’t seem very promising, so I grabbed all of my chips and left the table to cash in. [color=blue:55785f65d6][b:55785f65d6] HAND #1 Feb. 17th 5:40pm Table #2 $5 Game 8 players when I had the dice. # Of Rolls - about 9 I Felt: Relaxed Betting on the randies Made 3 randie bets Lost $0 Won $3 I used the Straight 6s set with the 7’s all around for the come-out and making the box #’s I forgot to switch dice sets this time to 7-out. The dice acted as they should have on this hand. Right after I had made my point of 10, this guy looked at me. He was clearly upset about something. He was talking to me from SL7 next to the dealer. I have a hearing problem so I hadn’t the slightest idea what he was saying to me. I just smiled and nodded my head, yes. Come to think about it, that’s what those Oriental people do to you when they don’t know what you’re saying. It didn’t affect the way I played at all. [/b:55785f65d6] [/color:55785f65d6] [color=green:55785f65d6][b:55785f65d6]Up for The Day +$59[/b:55785f65d6][/color:55785f65d6] [/size:55785f65d6] $5Bill
152 7ea7138a21 [color=green:7ea7138a21][b:7ea7138a21]A Short Session For Irionside and $5Bill[/b:7ea7138a21][/color:7ea7138a21] [/size:7ea7138a21] [color=blue:7ea7138a21][b:7ea7138a21]Feb 18, 2010[/b:7ea7138a21][/color:7ea7138a21] Irionside called me and said his car was fixed after he cracked it up. He told me that he would probably be a little late today. Tuesdays and Thursdays are the days when we meet up and play. He said that he would be there between 10:15 and 10:30. I got there a little early at 10 am and got the wheel chair. I stood outside for and hour waiting for him. I was getting frustrated to say the least. I even went into the casino to see if he snuck in some how. He wasn’t there and I went right back out to the parking lot to wait some more. When I got there he was sitting in his car right by the door. “Thank goodness he’s finally here.” I thought to myself. I went over to his car and he told me that he had been sitting in his car, parked in one of the parking spots for a ½ hour waiting for me. I was sitting out side but I didn’t see him come in the parking lot. I told him next time pull up by the door so I know you’re here. So that’s what he’s going to do from now on so we don’t miss each other again. When we got into the casino we found all three table were packed. That’s no surprise. They had one other table that hadn’t opened yet. Those casino executives better get on the ball and start opening ALL those tables a little earlier. I found one spot at SL3 for Irionside and got him in his place. There wasn’t any more room for me so I went down to use the restroom and got a decaf for me and a 7up for Irionside. When I got back I squeezed into the same table as Irionside but I was way out of position at SL7. I didn’t like this at all. I wasn’t about to lose after all my hard work this week. The dice were down at the other end when I bought in for $200. I did end up betting on two randies. Making $14 on the first guy using the $6, 6 and 8 and $5 in the field for two tosses and then I just left the 6 and 8 up and got one more hit on that before I took everything down. On the other randie, it was just a $6 Don’t Pass bet that I won. Irionside was way out of position too so he passed the dice. At that moment the two guys that were at straight out, left the table. I moved over and took up my second favorite position at straight out. When I got the dice, I put $10 Don't Pass. Using the straight 6’s set with the 7’s all around, I set the 9 as the point. I placed $34 inside. After the first hit, I tossed in $3 and told the dealer to give me $17 inside pressure. After the second hit, I took everything down. I set the dice to the Flying V with the 6 -3 looking up and the 5 and 9's all around. The next roll was a 7-out. I collect on my two hits plus I made money on my Don’t Pass when I sevened-out. What a deal! Irionside asked me if I wanted to go to lunch. I said, “Yes.” I was happy with the win I had plus the tables were still crowded and I didn’t want to give my money back. I could tell that Irionside needed some food so off we went to the buffet. He came out a winner also. We had a nice buffet but I’m getting a gut eating all that food. I saw the Cardiologist the other day and he told me my Body Mass Index (BMI) was 25. I asked him what that was and he explained it to me. For me, I’m supposed to be between 21 and 24. I was at 24 six months ago when I saw him last and now I’m 25. In other words, I’m getting fat. Irionside and I will be back at the boat again next Tuesday. Until then, I might just wonder in the casino by myself over the weekend and make myself some more money. [color=blue:7ea7138a21] [b:7ea7138a21] HAND #1 Feb. 18th 12:00pm Table #1 $5 Game I Felt; - Frustrated 10 players when I had the dice. # Of Rolls - 7 Betting on the randies Made 2 randie bets Randie #1 +$14 Randie #2 +$6 Lost $0 Won $20 I used the Straight 6s set with the 7’s all around for the come-out and making the box #’s The point was 9 and I set the dice to the 5's and 9's using the flying V with the 6 -3 looking up to get my 7-out. The dice acted as they should have on this hand except that I rolled one of the die off the table 4x's on hand #1 When I had the dice, I had a $10 Don't Pass bet. After the point of 9 was set, I placed $34 inside. After the first hit, I tossed in $3 and told the dealer to give me $17 inside pressure. After the second hit, I took everything down. I set the dice to the Flying V with the 6 -3 looking up and the 5 and 9's all around. Next roll was a 7-out. I keep rolling that one die off axis. So the dice set’s that I am using are working for me but in an opposite way. That’s fine as I am winning. It was a short session today. But I don't like to play in the mornings anymore. The tables are just too crowded. Playing during the rush hour traffic is better or late at night.[/b:7ea7138a21] [/color:7ea7138a21] [color=green:7ea7138a21][b:7ea7138a21]Up for The Day +$65[/b:7ea7138a21][/color:7ea7138a21][/size:7ea7138a21] $5Bill
153 cbdbd04c57 Thanks for transitioning the site over here. I am pleased to see some old friends have made it here. Out with the old, in with the new. Also, always eat dessert first, life is short.
154 ae5268e278 Three Dark Side Strategies for Precision Shooters From time to time a player will ask me if playing the Don’ts is compatible with precision shooting. My answer – absolutely. Think about it. The seven is already the most powerful number on the dice. If you can throw MORE sevens than the law of averages says you should – then you can make MORE money on the Don’ts. Here are three strategies I’ve seen sharp shooting darksiders use with some degree of success: $194 Across Lay for One Roll. The name says it all. I consider this a Right-Way play with a Don’t entrée. The shooter lays all of the box numbers - $41 no four and no ten, $31 no five and no nine, and $25 no six and no eight. He also plays $20 on the Pass Line. Then he sets for and tosses the seven. The results? A come out seven will win $120 on the Lay action – minus a total of $6 in commissions. A net win of $114 plus a $20 Pass Line win for a total hit of $134. Admittedly this is a high-risk play. But your average loss on this play is only $31, and you have a shot at winning $134. If you can keep the dice on-axis and toss the seven 25% of the time this play is a definite winner. $31 No Five or No Nine and the Straight Sixes. Have you ever taken the time to really look at the numbers distribution on the various pre-sets? On the straight sixes set there is one way each to roll the two and the twelve, two ways each to roll the three and eleven, one way each to roll the four and the ten, and two ways each to roll the six and the eight. There are four ways to roll the seven – but there are NO combinations on this axis that add up to five or nine. The play, then, is to Lay against the five or nine, pre-set the 3-4 / 3-4 (straight sixes) to an All Sevens set with 6-1 facing up and down – and the 5-2 facing front and back. Toss a Come-out seven and you win a quick $20 off the Lay bet. Set the Four or Ten – then Seven Out. Another dice pre-set favored by precision shooters tossing from the Don’ts is the V-2 (hard four) set with the 3-4 / 6-1 on axis. There are two ways each to make the four or ten with the dice set to this axis – and that’s exactly the strategy. The shooter plays a Don’t Pass bet and sets the four or ten as his point. Then he switches to either the Straight Sixes (3-4 / 3-4) or the All Sevens (6-1 / 6-1) pre-set and deliberately sevens out. The biggest deterrent to precision shooting from the Don’ts is the simple fact that the shooter loses the dice when he sevens out. For that reason – if you are considering any of these plays you should scout for empty or near empty tables so you’ll get the dice back quickly – and can seven out again. Hey, these plays aren't for everyone. And like every other play on the table - there is a risk associated with them. You could lose. But you already knew that, right? Happy shooting.
155 bba3fc5af4 Qualified Shooter "Indicators" Yeah, I put "indicators" in quotation marks for a reason. None of what follows is particularly "scientific," but it does give me something to do while deciding whether or not I am going to risk any action on an unknown shooter at the table. While charting the tables I am constantly looking for positive signs that suggest the table trend may be heating up. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but following the trend seems to be a sensible way to play in my book. Here are some of the primary Hot Shooter Indicators I look for in a game: 1. Any inside number - the 5, 6, 8, or 9 - repeats during a shooter’s hand. Repeating numbers are where most of us make our money at craps and it has to start somewhere. Once they start repeating I want to be there to collect on them. 2. Multiple hardway numbers roll during a shooter’s hand. It always surprise me how "streaky" hardway numbers are. And if I observe a player setting some variant of the hardways and hitting them I am almost always going to bet them. Sure, the vig is high on these bets. But I can't tell you how many times I've turned a $1 hard six or eight into $100 on a simple two-hit parlay. 3. The shooter makes his first pass and gets beyond roll two of his second hand. I don't know what makes that first roll after establishing the second point so dangerous, but all too often I'll see players toss a decent number of rolls on a first pass, establish a second point, then immediately go seven out. These days, if playing the pass line I just avoid that second pass second roll by turning my bets off. 4. The shooter throws consecutive sevens on the come out roll. Yes, surprising as it may seem this is a positive indicator to me. For one, I know that many players set for and attempt to toss naturals on the come-out. I also like to see a player get as many sevens as possible "out of his system" before establishing a point. Multiple sevens on the come out will bring out a pass line bet from yours truly quicker than anything. 5. The shooter throws consecutive elevens on the come out roll. Again, any time I see repeating numbers I get excited. Elevens on the come out are craps gold, and if I observe the shooter betting the eleven, C&E, ace-deuce-yo, the horn or the world when he's tossing elevens then odds are I'll be right there with him. 6. The shooter places and wins any one-roll proposition or hop bet. Let's face it. If a shooter tosses $10 to the stickman and says "Nines hop two ways" then tosses a nine the next throw I have to assume that he "meant" to do it. Odds are you should too. 7. The shooter takes the time to carefully pre-set the dice and executes a gentle consistent controlled toss. Just about everyone is setting the dice these days. It's what they do with them once they're set that interests me. If the shooter's toss [b:bba3fc5af4]looks[/b:bba3fc5af4] like a good toss then I'm going to risk a few dollars on his roll and give him a chance to earn my respect. A scientific approach? Not at all. And my math-boy dice pals will scoff at theory like this. Nevertheless, it's a way to play. And in a negative expectation game - anything that forces you to bet less is probably a good thing.[/i]
156 d1393d953a How Much Does it Cost to get Laid? Lay bets can be very confusing for the new player. Yet they can also be a valuable weapon in your dark-side arsenal. The lay bet is the opposite of a Buy bet. The player pays a commission to the house for the right to choose which point he wants to play against the seven. If the seven is thrown before the Lay number the player wins. Lay bets can be made on any of the box numbers - the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10. The payoff is based on the correct odds. A lay bet on the 4 or 10 is paid at 1:2 odds. The correct bet size is $41 no-four or no-ten. The extra dollar in the wager represents the house’s commission of 5%. The 5% figure is based on the anticipated payoff of $20. A lay bet on the 5 or 9 is paid at 2:3 odds. The correct bet size is $31 no-five or no-nine. Again, the anticipated payoff is $20. A lay bet on the 6 or 8 is paid at 5:6. The correct bet size is $25 no-six or no-eight, and as before the anticipated payoff is $20. A lay bet on the four or ten looks very attractive to many players. But remember, it takes a substantial bankroll to lay against the numbers. This is not to say that lay bets do not have a roll in conservative strategy. But that roll is primarily limited to hedging other bets. Let’s step up to the table with our dark-sider friend Darth again. Lately come-out naturals have been hammering Darth. It seems like every time he tosses out a $15 Don’t Pass bet the shooter rolls a seven. In order to protect himself from the Come-out sevens Darth has decided to Lay $41 no-four as a hedge. So, he places $15 on the Don’t Pass line – then drops $41 in front of the dealer and says “Forty-one no four, please.” The dealer sets up the bet, the stick moves the dice, and the shooter tosses an eight. Darth now has a $15 Don’t Pass bet on the eight, with six ways to win on the seven and five ways to lose on the eight. Next he tells the dealer to, “Bring me down off the four.” The dealer returns his $41 to him and he’s good to go. Had the seven shown on the Come out roll the $15 Don’t Pass bet would have lost. However Darth would have won $20 (net $19 after the commission) on the Lay bet. His net result would have been a $4 win for the series. Of course, the shooter could have thrown the four – in which case Darth would have lost $41 – but would have left him with a very strong Don’t number established as his point. He could have partially hedged the no-four bet by tossing out a $5 hard four wager. But at that point he would be hedging his hedges – and that sort of play is simply too cost prohibitive over the long run. To Lay or not to Lay – that is the question. The answer – it’s up to you.
157 c1fa55564d Too Tense at the Tables? Slow Down and Breathe Take a deep breath. Hold it. Now breathe out slowly – five, four three, two, one, ahhhh. You’d think that breathing easy would come naturally to everyone. After all, we start breathing on our own from the moment the doctor slaps us on our newborn bottoms. But the fact is, most of us do not breathe efficiently. That means your blood is never fully oxygenated, and you don’t reach your full energy potential. It can also lead to serious health issues. I’ve really had a real awareness of this since being diagnosed with sleep apnea. People with sleep apnea stop breathing anywhere from 10 seconds to 3 minutes at time while they are sleeping – and this can happen literally hundreds of times a night. All of this can lead to heart attack or stroke. However, the most common side effect I experienced was a severely bruised leg from my wife kicking me while shouting “Breathe damn it!” It was this spousal abuse, not the lack of sleep, which ultimately sent me to the doctor’s office in search of a cure. And one of the first things the sleep specialist checked to diagnose my sleep apnea was the oxygen level in my blood. Untreated, my blood oxygen level was in the mid eighties to low nineties. Not good but not particularly serious. But these days it’s in the low to mid nineties, and the result is a marked improvement in my energy level. Now what, you may ask, does this have to do with craps and precision shooting? Just this. Most people are “lazy” breathers. They use only the top halves of their lungs with any regularity. The bottom halves of the lungs go unused. As a result, more carbon dioxide builds up in the bloodstream. That in turn makes the blood more acidic, which puts more pressure on your heart, causes physical stress, and muscle tension. Stress and tension. Ever experienced those at the craps table? Ahhhhh. Now you’re starting to get the picture. More and more professional athletes are learning the importance of proper breathing techniques. They are learning how to release performance anxiety by fully expanding their diaphragms through a technique sometimes referred to as “belly breathing.” Most of the breathing techniques being taught these days have their origins in Eastern philosophies such as yoga and tai chi, and most can be learned on your own with just a little guidance and practice. Make a point of sitting quietly for a few minutes a day and just breathing. A simple count-down breathing technique – breathing in on the count of one, holding it for a couple of seconds, then breathing out to a five, four, three, two, one countdown is a good way to begin. Start low and go slow – practicing your breathing for three to five minutes a day at first, gradually working up to fifteen to twenty minutes. Soon you will see the energy connection, gain discipline, and improve your ability to focus. Practicing deep breathing and relaxation techniques in your hotel room before heading down to the tables gives you something you can apply in the heat of the game – an energy reserve you can draw on when the pressure mounts. And if you feel yourself getting tense at the tables, you’ll be able to breathe your troubles away.
158 8b8e1e67ba Heavy's Heat Seeking Craps Strategy What are your chances of winning at the craps table in a fair game? Even if you are a perfect player with rock-ribbed discipline and played the most conservative of bets, you still have to buck the minimum house edge of 1.41%. But even if there were no house edge your chances in a random game would be no better than 50/50. The only way to really win at any random game is to take advantage of the trend. Trends are streaks or identifiable patterns. In craps the tables will be trending toward hot or cold perhaps thirty percent of the time. They may actually be hot or cold for another ten percent of the time. The other sixty percent of the time the trend may be choppy with decisions hopping back and forth, both ways. The key to winning is protecting your bankroll during those choppy times, while positioning yourself to take advantage of the next trend. There are two philosophies regarding betting and trends. The first school of thought says buck the trend. In other words, always bet opposite of the last decision. This might not be a bad move on a choppy table. The second school of thought says follow the trend. When seeking out a hot shooter this is the correct way to play. Let the dice lead the way - and you follow. The most conservative of betting strategies rely strictly on flat betting either the Pass or Don’t Pass, and the Come or Don’t Come. Many players utilize these bets to follow the trend, betting the same way as the last decision of the dice - or in some instances betting the decision before the last decision. Often times they will play a progression strategy such as the Paroli or the Fibonacci. Both are good ways to play. But the player has no choice in the numbers when he plays the Line or Come/Don’t Come bets. He is truly at the mercy of the dice. Next to flat betting, the most conservative wager on the craps layout is the Place bet on the six or eight. The house edge on these wagers is just one tenth of one percent higher than on the flat bet. However, in this case the player has his choice of two very good numbers. The problem with place betting is that it immediately places money at risk. A quick point-seven can be devastating to the player’s bankroll. Therefore, the player should chart the tables and look for certain indicators before placing money at risk. And once the player decides to place money in action he should follow the old adage, “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.” Advantages of the Heat Seeking Craps Strategy: The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy offers many player advantages. First of all, it positions the player to score a substantial win with very little downside risk. When played properly the player will never have more than three “at-risk” betting units per hand. Since there is little money at risk the minimum bankroll required to play is relatively small - as little as $150 in a $5 game. And unlike systems that require you to count the number of tosses before entering the game, you do not have to stand idly by the table. You do not have to write anything down or perform any complex mathematical calculations in your mind. You simply watch for certain entry keys and play by a specific set of simple rules. Does this mean you will win at every session? No. Again, at best you have less than a 50/50 chance of winning in a random game. Long, hot rolls are few and far between. However, by playing a safe, conservative strategy you can find the hot shooters and profit from them. The strategy has a built-in money management feature that helps position you for unlimited winnings while minimizing losses. Hot Shooter Indicators: While charting the tables you will be looking for positive signs that indicate the table trend may be heating up. Here are the primary Hot Shooter Indicators you are looking for: 1. Any inside number - the 5, 6, 8, or 9 - repeats during a shooter’s hand. 2. Multiple hardway numbers roll during a shooter’s hand. 3. The shooter makes his first pass and gets beyond roll three of his second hand. 4. The shooter throws consecutive sevens on the come out roll. 5. The shooter throws consecutive elevens on the come out roll. 6. The shooter places and wins any one-roll proposition or hop bet. 7. The shooter takes the time to carefully pre-set the dice and executes a gentle consistent controlled toss. Negative Indicators: Just as there are indicators marking the correct time to enter the game, there are indicators that tell you not to enter the game, or if you are already in the game to place no further action until you see another Positive Indicator. Negative Indicators include: 1. The shooter sevens out without making his Pass. 2. The shooter throws a craps number on his come out roll (unless he had placed prop action on that particular craps number - in which case this is a Positive Indicator.) 3. You lose a come bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps. 4. One of your come bets travels to the 4 or 10. 5. A casino employee cautions the shooter for any reason. The Play: Let’s assume you are at a $5 table and you buy in for $150. Take $30 in chips and place them in your front chip rack. Take the remaining $120 and place it in the back rack. Those six chips you placed in the front of the rack are all you need to get started. And remember, you are going to limit your downside risk to just three units. Conversely, when you win you will place your winnings in the front rack along side your remaining action chips. When the dollar value of the chips in the front rack exceeds $35 the player may step his play up to the next level. Let’s say the shooter has the dice and establishes a point of five. He tosses the dice again and throws a six. He continues to toss and throws an eight, a ten, and another six. He has repeated an inside number - a Positive Indicator. Bet 1: Drop three of your red chips on the table and tell the dealer to place the six and eight for $6 each. You will receive $3 change and he will set up the bets. Bet 2: Place $5 on the Come. At this point you have $12 action on the six and eight. This is hedged on the next roll by the $5 Come bet, so you have only $7 at risk to win $7. You have a total of ten ways to win on the six and eight versus six ways to lose on the seven. The shooter rolls the dice again and one of four things happens. He makes his pass, he throws a box number, he throws a craps or eleven, or he sevens out. If he sevens out, the series ends with a net $7 loss. If he throws a craps number and you lose your Come bet you must stop betting until you note another positive indicator. If he makes his Pass or throws any box number your Come bet will travel to that number. Let’s assume the next number to roll is the nine and continue with our play. The come bet travels to the nine. You now have three units at risk, one unit place action each on the six and eight plus a one unit flat bet on the nine. Bet 3: Play $5 on the come. Once again, the $5 Come bet has a hedge effect against your other wagers. You have three units in action between the previous Place and Come action. However, you only have two units at risk. Now let’s assume the shooter gets the dice and throws another six. A couple of things happen at this point. First of all, your come bet travels to the six. Next the dealer will pay you $7 for the $6 six place bet. He will also ask if you want odds on your six. At this point you tell him “no” and ask him to bring you down on your place bet on the six. You still have three bets working; a $6 Place bet on the eight and Come bets on the six and nine. More importantly, you have locked up a $7 win. So while you have $16 on the layout, you only have $9 at risk. Let’s continue our play. Bet 4: Play $5 on the come. This time the shooter rolls a four. You now have $21 on the layout with $14 - three betting units - at risk. At this point you have four numbers covered. You may not place any further action until one of these bets wins. This is the highest risk play of the Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy - yet there are still less than three betting units at risk. Let’s assume the eight rolls next. You collect an additional $7 for the place bet, but since the bet does not come down you make no additional wagers. You still have four bets working. Now let’s assume the six repeats on the next roll. Since the six is a Come bet you will be paid a flat $5 and the initial wager returned. At this point you hand the dealer $6 and tell him to “Place the six back for six dollars.” When playing this strategy you will always have the six and eight working for you unless you find yourself with more than four bets working. Then you must come down on either the six or the eight. The best practice is to come down on the number that is farthest away from the shooter’s point. Let’s say the shooter makes his pass and throws the five on the next toss. You won a total of $19 for the last series. You have two flat bets working - the four and the nine. These are contract bets and are working on the next come out. You also have $6 each place on the six and eight. These are off on the come out roll. You have a total of $22 on the table. Once the point is established you will have only $3 at risk due to the earlier wins. Since the shooter made his last pass you may now place a Pass Line bet. Bet 5: $5 on the Pass Line. On the come out roll the shooter throws a 3-craps. This is a Negative Indicator. You do not place another wager until you see a Positive Indicator. The shooter gets the dice again and establishes a four as the point. Since your flat bet on the four was working the dealer pays you $5 and returns your $5 wager. You now have $6 each on the six and eight plus a $5 flat bet on the nine for a total of $17 action. The $5 loss on the come out roll was offset by the subsequent win on the four. You still have $19 locked up and are guaranteed a $2 profit regardless what happens at this point. At this point you have options. You could come down on the six and eight and leave only the flat bets working. This would increase your guarantee for this shooter to $14. Or you could continue to play as before, flat betting and seeking out the hot shooter. Let’s assume we do the latter. Bet 6: $5 on the Come. At this point the strategy progresses as before, the player never risking more than three units and never having more than four bets working. The player continues to place his winnings in the front rack until he accumulates in excess of $35. This is his key to step up his level of play. Take one chip from the front of the rack and tell the dealer you want single odds on one of your come bets. On each subsequent win repeat the process until you have single odds on all of your come bets. Then, on the next win, if you do not already have it you place the point. Continue to feed your winnings into the front chip rack until you have accumulated $70. This is your key to progress to double odds on your come bet. Only increase your odds as you collect wins, and increase your odds on only one come bet at a time. Each time the dollar value of the chips in your front rack double you may increase your odds bet by one unit. Continue this strategy until you reach the maximum odds available in that particular casino. Then increase the size of your flat bets from one unit to two and run the progression again. This simple place/come betting strategy allows the player to see plenty of action while minimizing risk. It forces the bets to pay for themselves first while taking advantage of the lowest vig bets on the layout. Will it win 100% of the time? No system can promise that. But long, hot hands are what most players are looking for in the game. The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy will help you survive until the hot shooter comes along. Then - it’s money in your pocket.
159 9169f51ea4 Casino Math and the Science of Probability The Science of Probability was born in the seventeenth century when the Chevalier de Mere, a French nobleman who enjoyed a good gamble as much as the rest of us, began posing questions about the probable outcome of certain dice wagers to prominent mathematicians. The Chevalier had made a considerable amount of money on even money bets – wagering that the number six would be rolled at least once in four rolls of a single die. He did so well with this wager that he sought to expand upon it by wagering that if two dice were rolled the double-six would show up at least once every twenty-four rolls. Needless to say, his math failed him and he lost his money just as quickly as he won it with the single die wager. Baffled by his misfortune, the Chevalier took his problem to the mathematician Blaise Pascal. Pascal, in turn, consulted with another mathematician, Pierre de Fermat, and the two of them solved the double-six problem and laid the foundations of the Probability branch of mathematics. By the way, the rule of mathematics used to solve this problem was the Multiplication Rule of Independent Events. It states simply that “For independent events, the probability of all of them occurring equals the product of their individual probabilities. Say what? Okay, let’s go back to the two-die problem. Each die has six sides. The number six appears one time on each die. So the odds of a six showing up on any one roll are 1-6. But when you add the second die in things get more complicated. Since each die operates independently of the other you must calculate the probability of all possible outcomes. You do that by multiplying the independent probabilities (1-6 and 1-6) together. In this case, the result is the correct odds of the double-six rolling: 1–36. The Chevalier’s mathematical mistake – multiplying six (the number of sides on a single die) times four (the number of rolls he planned to make) resulted in his one roll in twenty-four mistake – and cost him a fortune. Now, let’s take the Multiplication Rule of Independent Events and apply it to some of the things we talk about on the board from time to time. Some of you have been at the table with me when I’ve tossed five, six, seven, and on one occasion - eight consecutive Horn numbers. What are the odds against that happening? I’ll walk you through the math. There are six ways to win on the horn bet – one way each on the two and twelve, and two ways each on the ace-deuce and yo. There are thirty-six possible combinations of the dice. So the odds of a horn number rolling on any given toss are 6-36, which reduces down to a nifty 1-6. From there it’s just simple mathematics to calculate the odds of consecutive hits on the horn occurring. The odds of two consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-36 (6X6) The odds of three consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-216 (36X6) The odds of four consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-1296 (216X6) The odds of five consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-7776 (1296X6) The odds of six consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-46,656 (7776X6) The odds of seven consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-279,936 (46,656X6) The odds of eight consecutive horn numbers showing: 1-1,679,616 (279,936X6) That’s correct. Eight horn number in a row will happen just once in every 1.68 MILLION tosses of the dice. With figures that staggering, it is no wonder the math crowd says this dice setting thing doesn’t work. And it’s no wonder that the rest of us say we’ve got all the proof we need that it does. Understanding the odds of the games you play will help you make smarter decisions at the table. And that, in turn, can lead to the best math of all. The counting exercise that occurs when you say, “Color coming in.”
160 919a938465 Excellent move to archive some of the past material. It still proves highly useful.
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