Search found 495 matches

by irish
Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Heavy's Wrong Way Craps
Topic: What size increase in bankroll is needed to add a lay bet on each comeout roll?
Replies: 21
Views: 608

Re: What size increase in bankroll is needed to add a lay bet on each comeout roll?

with 80% on axis , i would set the 2V put 200 on the 4 and 10, 100 on the H4 and H10 and carry a bag to put all the money in.
Bag? I'd get a disabled placard for my dumptruck so I could park it right by the front doors to carry all the money.
by irish
Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

I don't entirely disagree with your premise. I'm no math purist. However, my point is if you understand and properly interpret the math, you'll not find yourself speeding toward a brick wall. You'll have given yourself plenty of time to brake and continue on your profitability journey. (I'm taking y...
by irish
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

Chip Chart.jpg What's interesting about Heavy's picture is that it's both correct and incorrect depending on your interpretation of the chart. Most interpret this information incorrectly (as demonstrated by some of the previous responses). Let say a new shooter gets the dice and he rolls once then ...
by irish
Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: The All, Small or Tall Bet
Replies: 190
Views: 53956

Re: The All, Small or Tall Bet

My thinking is that that making the ATS is really nothing more than an 'Outlier' streak of variance that Irish reminds us of....generated by the suppression of sevens and longer hand that generates. So, the best DI, or any DI, that tosses mostly 6,8 will make the ATS just by virtue of long, outlier...
by irish
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

That's fine Dan. Expected nothing more. Listen folks. Here's the deal. I don't have all the right answers. No one here does. But there ARE wrong answers. Maybe out there, someone, someday, will solve the mystery of how to turn a negative expectation game into a positive one through betting. But it's...
by irish
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

I did a fair amount of naked Come Betting using the old "heat seeker" in Kansas City when playing $25 games - just because I didn't want excessive exposure. $30 six and eight plus a $25 Come Bet. No odds until a number hit twice. Never more than three units exposure. Worked quite well. I like that ...
by irish
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

DanF Sinking.jpg So. DanF could not answer one question. Not one. But he blessed us with more nonsense to digest. It's sad as heck how uninformed he is, and yet, you can't take your eyes off of the disaster playing out before your eyes. And the band played on.... Maths says 1/6 of seven. Which mean...
by irish
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

Ok. So DanF could not answer one question. Just about everything else about is reply was meaningless. Anyone want to help him out? It's a travel day for me. Better hurry. He's sinking faster than the Titanic.
by irish
Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

So, as good as it sounds, something like the 204 ISR places too much HA to overcome, even considering a regression...? Regression makes it worse. The HA remains the same if you regress. You still have to overcome the HA. You will win and break even with more frequency, but you'll not maximize your ...
by irish
Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

You pinpointed the exact reason my system works. Variance. If you have an advantage throw, variance will grow on positive side if you bet in a manner to take advantage of it. Actually, if you have an edge, you want volatility, not variance. Variance skews unpredictably in both directions, but is we...
by irish
Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

trying to understand why line/come/come and three numbers being covered by line/place/place, you would have greater expected value with the line/come/come when analyzing at the meta level. I know this is an earnest question. Trying to lay it out as plainly as possible. The subtext of your comment h...
by irish
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

Taking this a bit further, if you add two or three come bets with decent odds into the mix does this reduce the volatility risk and how would it impact EV? My thinking is that as a practiced DI, the initial numbers your dice set and toss produce on a particular table (which your come bets travel to...
by irish
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: Higher minimums ....
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Higher minimums ....

Well, Then we're more aligned. If a player is both "desperate" and unable to "afford" to play at the table minimum, my point is that it's more logical to not play. However, you are not effectively making it a $5 table. A doey-don't is two wagers. Both at the mercy of the HA. They only offset in a pl...
by irish
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

My question, really is more specific to the blanket statement that a DI does not have enough influence to overcome the HA of an inside bet... This is good. Getting to the crux of it. Remember, we've had these discussions in the past. If you have a validated SRR of > 6.1, how is that achieved? That ...
by irish
Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: Higher minimums ....
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Higher minimums ....

At least for the pass line seems fairly logical to do a doey-don't and pick odds for which way you go ... of course, paying the "tax" of covering with a 12 for a $12 on comeouts. IF doey-don'ts are allowed. [snark]Doubling the amount you're holding up against the HA, then adding a double digit HA w...
by irish
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

As skasower indicated so eloquently, risk aversion is personal. However, it's directly related to bankroll in some cases. There's also player utility, which I left out of my initial post about this. There is a necessary balance between risk aversion, bankroll, and how it relates to frequency of play...
by irish
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

OK. So, seems like we're generally in agreement on bankroll. We could quibble over things like win goals and loss limits, but those are largely personal decisions. Anyway, if you're underfunded, what is the implication in regards to risk aversion? How is this related to volatility management? If you...
by irish
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: 22Inside's Betting Evolution
Replies: 90
Views: 10907

Re: 22Inside's Betting Evolution

But profitability isn't made with single hand or single bet math. It is a complex combination of events. I wasn't using a single hand. When I say the likelihood of an event happening, that projection is based on millions of rolls. Everything we do is based on this. The chance of rolling a seven is ...
by irish
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Betting Systems and Strategies for Casino Craps
Topic: reference to a post
Replies: 60
Views: 3874

Re: reference to a post

continuing... Bankroll (I’ll talk about Risk Aversion another day) This is a touchy subject. Anything that revolves around personal finance is. Let's start with the definition of bankroll. Stanford Wong said of bankroll, it's “the amount of money you can afford to lose before you give up gambling.” ...